# VIRUS CONTRACTION RATE BY STATE



## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

I am trying to stay busy without worrying about family members. So I decided to analyze some virus statistics.

I have been reading about the "hot spots" in the US based on total number of cases in each State. But that doesn't take into account the total population of each State, it is just a gross number and I think that could be misleading. I searched on the Internet for a contraction rate per population in each State and came up with nothing. So I decided to do my own analysis. I made up a quick Excel spreadsheet and entered in the 2020 population of each State and the number of reported virus cases in each State as of the evening of 4/5/2020. A couple of caveats: 1) this analysis is just a snapshot as of this time and date and results could be different tomorrow, 2) this analysis presumes that the reported virus cases in each State are correct but maybe not, 3) this analysis does not break down the difference between urban and rural populations, just total population per State and therefore contraction rates my be higher or lower in a particular area based on a more detailed study of population density in that particular area.

The contraction rate is not surprising in some cases, but very surprising in other cases. You be the judge.

VIRUS CONTRACTION RATE PER 100,000 POPULATION BY STATE

1. New York = 631/100K
2. New Jersey = 431/100K
3. Louisiana = 282/100K
4. Mass. = 181/100K
5. Conn. = 157/100K

At the other end of the scale

1. D.C. = 14/100K
2. Minn. = 16/100K
3. West Va = 18/100K
4. Neb. = 19/100K
5. Kentucky = 21/100K

The mean for all States is 40/100K. What surprised the heck out of me is that California is always shown as a hot spot but in reality it shows a contraction rate of 38/100K, slightly below the mean. Actually, the Northeast tends to be the hot spot in the US. Be very careful up there you guys. Whereas the central Midwest tends to be the least affected. This analysis puts things more in perspective and gives a more realistic picture in my opinion. If anyone wants the contraction rate for a particular State, reply to this post and I will publish it.

Ricky's Popi


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## ShamaMama (Jul 27, 2015)

I wonder what DC's secret is? Wealthy politicians?


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

ShamaMama said:


> I wonder what DC's secret is? Wealthy politicians?


Good question. Actually DC is predominantly a black population with a black mayor and not particularly wealthy as far as average income goes. My GUESS is that they have better testing, equipment, and mitigation measures there to protect the relatively wealthy politicians.

Ricky's Popi


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## EvaE1izabeth (Nov 14, 2017)

I’m curious about the number of people tested compared to the population of the state, and how those rates relate to the number of positive tests. 

There are a few states that are starting to collect much more comprehensive data, which is a great step in the right direction.


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

EvaE1izabeth said:


> I'm curious about the number of people tested compared to the population of the state, and how those rates relate to the number of positive tests.


Excellent point! 
That would be a good data point. I can find no data for test administration at any level. If you find something, send it on to me and I'll plug it into the spreadsheet and run the program.


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## EvaE1izabeth (Nov 14, 2017)

This is the one my husband was analyzing today.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


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## krandall (Jun 11, 2009)

The really frustrating part to me is that the reason MA is so high is that BioGen was so INCREDIBLY STUPID and held that convention in Boston in February, which became ground zero for the outbreak in MA. And because there are so many BioGen employees who live in our little state, and have children in our schools. They all went home and passed it around our communities before they knew they were sick. (Remember, there were almost no tests in late Feb, early Mar, and it took upwards of a week to get results. While Governor Baker was more proactive than many governors, he STILL was not quick enough shutting down schools, IMO, and those petri dishes spread it like wild fire. 

One BioGen employee spread it to 11 town officials in the town where my husband works, and they, of course, were all over town, having lunch in all the local establishments, talking to all the local business people, etc, before they could be “tracked down and isolated” because of the week between testing and results in that late Feb. early Mar. time period. Oh, and of course, all the well-feeling people who LEFT that BioGen conference and went through Logan Airport, spreading the disease hither and yon all over the US and beyond. BioGen, of ALL companies should have KNOWN better. They had execs there from Italy and Asia. (I believe China, though not Wuhan) Many other big companies who were not even in biotech were cancelling their conferences at that point in Boston, and BioGen went right ahead. 

Would we have Covid 19 in MA without BioGen? Of course. Would we be a “hot spot”? I doubt it. We’d be like the rest of the NE states other than CT, which, unfortunately suffers because it is “suburban NYC”. When the dust settles, whoever at Biogen let that conference happen should face a firing squad for the number of deaths they have caused.

The GOOD news, is that Governor Baker IS on top of things, and shut things down early enough that it looks like we may “ride the wave” without overwhelming our medical facilities. Especially once the Patriots helped us do an end run around the president in terms of getting adequate PPE in here, since he seemed dead set on shutting us down at every turn.


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## Cassandra (Dec 29, 2015)

When this is all over, the analysis is going to be fascinating. The Biogen conference is definitely one of the high profile incidents. The Louisiana placement on the high list undoubtedly is going to be traced back to the Mardi Gras celebration. In terms of data collection, I am fascinated with the analysis being released now by various sources on who is complying with shelter in place orders, tracking population movements by cellular data tower contacts. In the end, we may see how this compliance data relates to death and hospitalization rates, which may ultimately be the only reliable data points in light of the continuing failures in testing and contact tracing.


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

EvaE1izabeth said:


> This is the one my husband was analyzing today.
> 
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Great sleuthing Mr. EvaE. It builds confidence that the data above is consistent with the data I generated for contraction rate (except that the data above breaks it down by million population rather my hundred thousand population, it is still consistent).

So I entered the testing rate above into my data sheet and broke it down by tests per one hundred thousand population per State. The hypothesis that the more testing a State does, the more C-19 virus you will find and that proved to be generally true. You be the judge:

VIRUS TESTING RATE PER 100,000 POPULATION BY STATE

1. New York = 1550/100K
2. Louisiana = 1311/100K
3. Washington = 1156/100K
4. Vermont = 1097/100K
5. Mass. = 1042/100K

At the other end of the scale

1. Oklahoma = 66/100K
2. Miss. = 240/100K
3. Texas = 244/100K
4. Georgia = 262/100K
5. Alabama = 266/100K

The conclusion (and generalizing) is that "blue' States tend to be more proactive in identifying and dealing with virus identification. And contrary, (again generalizing) "red" States are taking the Alfred E. Newman approach, "What, Me Worry?" It is shocking that Oklahoma is not putting much effort in identifying the virus. No wonder the are shutting down hospitals and furloughing medical staff! "I have my eyes shut and I can't see anything :lalala I suspect that these States that are doing so little testing have a much bigger virus contamination than they expect and will have a real problem in a week or two!

The median testing rate for all States is about 500/100K. Although California is ranked at about the middle in contraction rate, the thing that really stands out is that California is currently testing at 295/100K, near the bottom of the testing rate. The Governor says we can't get testing kits. Hospital staff is telling my family with symptoms that they don't have any testing kits, and I have applied on-line for a test because of my age and some underlying health issues (but admittedly no known symptoms) and I have been told I don't qualify - they say they the kits are in short supply and they are rationing them to those who are MOST symptomatic! What's going on? I fear that California has a much higher infection rate than is currently being reported because of lack of testing.

Regarding D.C., they are testing at 976/100K, up at the top, right behind Mass. So yes, the politicians are making sure they are taking care of themselves and it is working!

I would be interested in hearing Mr. EvaE's take on all this because he appears to be a fellow nerd :nerd:

Ricky's Popi


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## krandall (Jun 11, 2009)

Ricky Ricardo said:


> Regarding D.C., they are testing at 976/100K, up at the top, right behind Mass. So yes, the politicians are making sure they are taking care of themselves and it is working!


The scary thing is that even though it LOOKS like our per-capita testing is "high" here in MA, it is STILL scarce as hens' teeth. You STILL can't get it without the "big three" symptoms... fever over 101.5, cough, and trouble breathing, AND tests to rule out flu. Known exposure to known CV19 source also helps. Even with proven pneumonia and two of the symptoms and a temp only SLIGHTLY below at the time of being seen. Otherwise, it's, "Go home and wait it out."

It's CRAZY. I do believe they really DON'T have the tests, though.


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## Sheri (Oct 11, 2008)

Idaho isn't high as a state, but I've been concerned and watchful of my son's rather sparsely populated county here, which has had the highest-or close to the highest- infection rate per capita in the United States, 1921 per 100,000, as of today. Blaine County, Idaho.

I've also wondered how much more common the virus is, since here in my state we are also told "if you suspect you might have the corona virus, go home and self-quarantine."

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/why-an-idaho-ski-destination-has-one-of-the-highest-covid-19-rates-in-the-nation?fbclid=IwAR07GbLEfiDXSUsO99ADfjLYlW9XZi5ZSkBRGKyhHWNGytKL0f1KiiJ0Xtw


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

Sheri said:


> Idaho isn't high as a state, but I've been concerned and watchful of my son's rather sparsely populated county here, which has had the highest-or close to the highest- infection rate per capita in the United States, 1921 per 100,000, as of today. Blaine County, Idaho.
> 
> I've also wondered how much more common the virus is, since here in my state we are also told "if you suspect you might have the corona virus, go home and self-quarantine."


 Ouch!!!!!! @Sheri that statistic is cause for increased vigilance. I ran the numbers on the County I live in is 33 per 100000. This is much less than the rate for California as a whole. However, our County rate is increasing exponentially faster than the rate of increase in California as a whole. So we have residents here who are NOT following directives.

Sheri, I beg you to keep you and yours safe. Follow CDC guidelines and just hunker down for a while. I would hate like heck to take away your bully stick if you don't follow directives (but I know you will). :thumb:

Ricky's Popi


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## Sheri (Oct 11, 2008)

Ricky Ricardo said:


> Ouch!!!!!! @Sheri that statistic is cause for increased vigilance. I ran the numbers on the County I live in is 33 per 100000. This is much less than the rate for California as a whole. However, our County rate is increasing exponentially faster than the rate of increase in California as a whole. So we have residents here who are NOT following directives.
> 
> Sheri, I beg you to keep you and yours safe. Follow CDC guidelines and just hunker down for a while. I would hate like heck to take away your bully stick if you don't follow directives (but I know you will). :thumb:
> 
> Ricky's Popi


Absolutely, we are following the Orders! My son, too, in his area. My town has a much lower infection rate, (62 per 100,000,) but still, I'm following. We've been "Sheltering in Place" for about 3 weeks now, as has my son up in his town. You, Momi, and Ricky stay safe, too!


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## EvaE1izabeth (Nov 14, 2017)

Ricky Ricardo said:


> It is shocking that Oklahoma is not putting much effort in identifying the virus. No wonder the are shutting down hospitals and furloughing medical staff! "I have my eyes shut and I can't see anything :lalala I suspect that these States that are doing so little testing have a much bigger virus contamination than they expect and will have a real problem in a week or two!
> 
> Ricky's Popi


In my area they are also doing pay cuts of service providers that can't be redeployed or utilized because of the freeze on elective procedures. I was told they don't anticipate being able to do elective procedures until August. However, they are actively testing here, at one of the highest rates in the country. They want to keep beds open, and the virus hasn't peaked here. The measures seem to be working, so the hospitals aren't overstretched at this point. Successful "flattening the curve" means we might look back and see we have more empty hospital beds than we need. But the alternative is what we are seeing in places like California and NY area. The difference is those states had less time to prepare since they were hit first.

Although I do suspect the virus is lurking everywhere at a higher rate than we can see, i think it also reached different states at different rates, and the rate of spread looks different in each region. Even within each state there will be hot spots. In the Mountain West, initially the highest infection rates were resort towns (Park City, Colorado ski areas, and Sun Valley).


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## krandall (Jun 11, 2009)

EvaE1izabeth said:


> Although I do suspect the virus is lurking everywhere at a higher rate than we can see, i think it also reached different states at different rates, and the rate of spread looks different in each region. Even within each state there will be hot spots. In the Mountain West, initially the highest infection rates were resort towns (Park City, Colorado ski areas, and Sun Valley).


Yes, I was reading an article about Germany, and their lower death rate (by quite a margin) than other countries. Part of that is their higher testing rate, but part of it is also the cohort that got infected before they knew to have people socially distance. Their average age is MUCh younger than many other countries because the first wave of cases were people coming back from ski vacations in resort locations in the Alps.

Also interesting is that because of their socialized health system, they have medical people checking on sick people isolated at home, and being pro-active about hospitalizing them if they suspect worsening disease. So they don't go in through the ER, and they aren't AS sick when they arrive, making it easier to treat them and KEEP them from getting as sick. It was a pretty interesting article.

They also said that because of the citizens' overall trust in the government and Angela Merkel, they were having very good overall compliance with social distancing measures, which they feel is helping keep things down also.


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## HavFancier (Jan 25, 2020)

ShamaMama said:


> I wonder what DC's secret is? Wealthy politicians?


Maybe weed kills the virus.


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

HavFancier said:


> Maybe weed kills the virus.


ound: If the so-called president owned stock in a cannabis company, it would surely be recommended by him! "try it, what do you got to lose?"

Ricky's Popi


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## LUVmyHava (Apr 16, 2019)

You might be interested in the forecasts at www.healthdata.org/covid. Shows estimated peak date for each state and country. Estimates number of hospital and ICU beds needed at peak and shortfall if any. Also number of respirators.

One factor that I think some are ignoring is that people in the some of the poorer states don't travel much and rarely out of USA. And few people visit from other countries. My state, MS, is poorest in USA and we don't get international travelers here at all (no tourist attractions) . Population about 3M. About 1/3 population is in capital metro area with lots of very rural counties (agriculture and forestry). Our first case was on Gulf coast when a traveler from Florida visited casino. Second case was woman who returned from visit to South Carolina. Travel is a big factor in spread.

MS testing data and results only includes those done by MS Health Dept. University of MS Med Center has done some testing (about 300) not included. https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,0,420.html#Mississippi


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## LUVmyHava (Apr 16, 2019)

Smoking cannabis may make a person more vulnerable to lung attack. Vaping sure does as does cigarettes/cigars. So EAT your cannabis to be safe and don't share joints.


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

LUVmyHava said:


> One factor that I think some are ignoring is that people in the some of the poorer states don't travel much and rarely out of USA. And few people visit from other countries.


I agree with you and in addition those States that are insular from the coasts and borders seem to be less susceptible to the virus. I speculate that is why the interior of the US is experiencing lower rates of infection. However, that protection to the interior States goes out the window if travel restrictions from other States is removed too soon.

Ricky's Popi


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

LUVmyHava said:


> Smoking cannabis may make a person more vulnerable to lung attack. Vaping sure does as does cigarettes/cigars. So EAT your cannabis to be safe and don't share joints.


Do like Bill Clinton, "I smoked it, but I never inhaled." Whatever you say Bill. :wink2:

Ricky's Popi


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## krandall (Jun 11, 2009)

Ricky Ricardo said:


> ound: If the so-called president owned stock in a cannabis company, it would surely be recommended by him! "try it, what do you got to lose?"
> 
> Ricky's Popi


LOL!


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

I have populated the current contraction rate (infection rate) as of this Thursday evening. It is obvious that the infection rate continues to grow in all States and the results are not good, more deaths. What I am analyzing is how well each State is managing their infection rate. Most States maintained their same relative position of infections per 100K residents seen in my last analysis. There are some notable exceptions.

BAD these States moved up significantly in relation to other States.
1. D.C. moved up 44 spots (probably because of a recent increase in testing. D.C. shot up from last on the list to 6th on the list of infections per 100K in just a couple of days. So D.C. has become a localized "hotspot", BY MY DEFINITION which is subject to interpretation)
2. So. Dakota moved up 7 spots
3. Texas moved up 7 spots
4. Rhode Island moved up 5 spots
5. Virginia moved up 5 spots
6. Iowa moved up 3 spots
7. Maryland moved up 3 spots
8. several moved up 2 spots which is not significant for the purpose of this analysis

GOOD, these States moved down significantly, meaning that they are getting things under control
1. Washington moved down 3 spots
2. Idaho moved down 3 spots
3. Colorado moved down 3 spots
4. several moved down 2 spots which is not significant for the purpose of this analysis

California held steady in the middle of the pack, right at the median. I only include this on the basis of self-interest. I hope/wish to see CA move down in the list in the days to come but we have been hampered by a lack of testing kits which I just can't comprehend.

Ricky's Popi


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## krandall (Jun 11, 2009)

Ricky Ricardo said:


> we have been hampered by a lack of testing kits which I just can't comprehend.


Well, you-know-who said just yesterday that "it's not gonna happen" re universal testing (or anything close to it) by the time he wants to "open up for business as (close to) usual. Whatever that will mean.

The problem meaning that maybe MANY people will be able to go back to work with a bunch of restrictions and precautions in place, knowing that people will STILL get sick, but they will be those better able to tolerate the illness and that we will be able to handle the load in hospitals.

From my personal perspective, and there are a WHOLE LOT of people in my position, it means that I will have to remain pretty much a shut-in until a vaccine is developed if there is no way to positively identify those who have already had the virus and cleared it, or who are not sick at all.

As EVERY medical person agrees (and TRump refuses to hear) testing is KEY to safe re-opening of the country. Otherwise, it is Russian roulette reopening of the country. It is "how brave are you? reopening of the country.


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## EvaE1izabeth (Nov 14, 2017)

krandall said:


> From my personal perspective, and there are a WHOLE LOT of people in my position, it means that I will have to remain pretty much a shut-in until a vaccine is developed if there is no way to positively identify those who have already had the virus and cleared it, or who are not sick at all.


Not just you! Every person in your household will have to continue with stringent precautions, keeping in mind asymptomatic carriers.


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## krandall (Jun 11, 2009)

EvaE1izabeth said:


> Not just you! Every person in your household will have to continue with stringent precautions, keeping in mind asymptomatic carriers.


I know, and that will become almost impossible for them. As it is, they worry about it every time they leave the house. I already was told to put my regular (and necessary) monthly IV infusion on hold for at least an extra 3 weeks because it is too dangerous for me to go to the hospital for it right now.


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

The County I live in is about average for contraction rate (infection rate) and about average for testing rate. Today this was posted:

*In a press briefing Friday afternoon, Dr. Michael Mesisca, Riverside University Health System-Medical System, said the figures are inline with current modeling showing the county is on track to see more than 65,000 infections and 1,000 deaths by early May.

Infections, hospitalizations and ICU admissions are doubling every 4.5 days, according to the doctor.The modeling is "still playing out" as predicted, and is "freakishly accurate," Mesisca said.*

This is a nightmare! As of today, our County death toll, as the result of C-19, stands at 39 dead. That means the number of dead will increase 25 times in the next 3 weeks! Suicide calls in Southern California have increased 900% in March compared to in March 2019. Suicide calls have increased 300% in the last three weeks alone. Mental Health professionals are swamped with no end in sight (many have to make themselves available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week).

I don't post this to scare anyone. These are simply the facts as reported by health professionals. In my opinion it is easier to deal with the known rather than the unknown. I beg each one of you HF members follow the CDC guidelines to protect yourself rather than the false narrative promoted by the WhiteHouse and some Governors.

Play it safe, err on the side of extreme caution, and be well.

Ricky's Popi


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## krandall (Jun 11, 2009)

Ricky Ricardo said:


> The County I live in is about average for contraction rate (infection rate) and about average for testing rate. Today this was posted:
> 
> *In a press briefing Friday afternoon, Dr. Michael Mesisca, Riverside University Health System-Medical System, said the figures are inline with current modeling showing the county is on track to see more than 65,000 infections and 1,000 deaths by early May.
> 
> ...


I had to do an errand today (don't worry, I was safe) and I was astounded how many people were out on the road. I had to pick up something at a friend's aquarium store. I called him ahead, paid over the phone, and although he told me I could come in, I asked him to bring what I needed out to my car. (which he did) But his store was BUSY!!! How can that BE when people are supposed to be ONLY doing "essential" business. I can understand needing something for your aquarium to keep your animals healthy, for sure. But to NEED to go into a store and look at and buy aquarium fish?!?! THAT IS NOT ESSENTIAL, folks!!! I get that people are getting bored, but go for a walk outdoors. It was a nice day. Don't put yourself and others in danger that way!

He took my CC number over the phone and wiped my packages down with alcohol before handing them to me in my car. So HE is trying to do all he can.


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

krandall said:


> But his store was BUSY!!! How can that BE when people are supposed to be ONLY doing "essential" business.


I live in a 55+ community. This is an age group that is particularly at risk yet a minority but significant number of people are refusing to follow the State's C-19 restrictions. What's their excuse? They say they are following FOX cable channel and the so-called president's assertion this "flu thing" is way overblown by the media and it's time to get back to 'normal' life, that it is Chinese plot to ruin our economy because we established tariffs on Chinese imports, and/or they are good Christians and GOD will take care of them, they have nothing to worry about. Shaking My Head, they are putting my life and a lot of other people in mortal danger. If they choose to commit suicide by stupidity, that's their business, but if they are trying to kill me by their stupidity, then that's my business!

Ricky's Popi


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## EvaE1izabeth (Nov 14, 2017)

At first, most of my experience had been that people were respectful and careful, and even if they think social distancing and lockdowns are an overreaction, they don’t want to be rude. The last time I went out, about a week and a half ago, I had to get a single bolt at the small hardware store near my house. This guy was taking up the whole aisle, not even using it, he was on his phone! I finally left to see if they had any paper products and came back, and then there were more people crowding into the aisle! I couldn’t believe it because it was the exact opposite of my experience at the big box hardware store the week before. I had been able to get in and out quickly without getting closer than 10 feet to anyone, and they had plexiglass partitions set up, and sanitizer. 

DH already did the shopping for the week but he forgot to get the ham for tomorrow, which my kids were looking forward to. When he got to the store today, they were all out, but someone came out and said he found 4 more in the back. DH lucked out and got one, and went to leave as quickly as possible. He said it just felt creepy, like any minute someone was going to do something crazy over a ham like it was Black Friday. At the checkout, the guy in front of him was wearing gloves, which wasn’t unusual, there were a few customers wearing gloves. DH almost died trying not to laugh when he watched the guy pull the gloves off of his fingertips with his teeth to pay. 

Part of the problem right now is that people are “done.” I do get it, I’m feeling pretty nuts and it hasn’t been that long. I’m actually more worried that when it’s time to go back to the busy schedule it’s going to be overwhelming in comparison to all of this down time. But, we just can’t be done yet! And in my area in particular, people don’t seem to get that “flattening the curve” means you don’t see the worst case projections, that’s how you know it’s working, and you have to keep it up a little longer. I think they see it as validation of an overreaction. 

The other problem is that this whole situation feeds paranoia. There’s a difference between being cautious, even vigilant, and being paranoid. Gloves, masks, social distancing, pickup orders - those are all reasonable and necessary precautions to take right now. We’re protecting people’s lives! Before this I had never personally seen anyone in a hazmat suit in my life. Now I’ve seen more than I can count. And I’ve hardly gone out! I’m sure there are a few perfectly normal people who happen to have hazmat suits for legitimate reasons, no judgement there. But, I’m also sure that there is a certain type of survivalist personality out there who kept hazmat suits before this for less legitimate reasons, and they seem to be out in full force. And that is a little scary.


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

@EvaE1izabeth perfectly logical, reasonable, and dispassionate analysis and summation. You get it. Well done. I needed that. My hat's off to you. :yo:

Ricky's Popi


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## ShamaMama (Jul 27, 2015)

EvaE1izabeth said:


> Part of the problem right now is that people are "done." I do get it, I'm feeling pretty nuts and it hasn't been that long. I'm actually more worried that when it's time to go back to the busy schedule it's going to be overwhelming in comparison to all of this down time. But, we just can't be done yet! And in my area in particular, people don't seem to get that "flattening the curve" means you don't see the worst case projections, that's how you know it's working, and you have to keep it up a little longer. I think they see it as validation of an overreaction.


Exactly. Now is NOT the time to be relaxing and easing up on self-control. We have to remain vigilant! Sheesh.


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## ShamaMama (Jul 27, 2015)

DH said he saw a lot of photos on FB of extended families gathered for Easter today. Ugh.


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

krandall said:


> Well, you-know-who said just yesterday that "it's not gonna happen" re universal testing (or anything close to it) by the time he wants to "open up for business as (close to) usual. Whatever that will mean..................................From my personal perspective, and there are a WHOLE LOT of people in my position, it means that I will have to remain pretty much a shut-in until a vaccine is developed if there is no way to positively identify those who have already had the virus and cleared it, or who are not sick at all.


According to published statistics, Mass. is testing at the rate of 1042 people per 100K while Cal. is testing at the rate of 295 people per 100K. We simply don't have enough test kits here. It is almost like each State gets the same number of test kit regardless of their population. But that doesn't surprise me given the incompetent and inept response by the Federal government.

Ricky's Popi


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

ShamaMama said:


> DH said he saw a lot of photos on FB of extended families gathered for Easter today. Ugh.


Well I have to come clean..............we visited one daughter yesterday, Easter Sunday. After giving it much thought, we figured out a plan to do it safely. Our oldest daughter lives about 75 miles from us over California freeways. On a normal weekday, that takes about 2 hours. On a normal Sunday that takes about 90 minutes. Yesterday it took us 70 minutes due to lighter traffic. Upon arriving, we parked in her driveway and sat in our car with masks on. She opened her garage door and sat on a lawn chair in her garage about 20 feet from us. Momi had made her an Easter basket (which Momi has done every year of her life). Before leaving our house, we had put the gifts in the trunk of our car, so we opened the trunk remotely and DD retrieved her baskets.

We let Ricky out of the car so he could play with his cousin doggie, JoJo. Both dogs were so happy to have a doggie to play with. Although JoJo is 5 times larger than Ricky, Ricky was trying to climb up on her back and ride her like a horse and JoJo was having nothing of that monkey business, twisting and turning, trying to get that pest off her back! We were laughing so hard.

DD is an administrator at a major public university. She is an 'essential' employee and is currently working 40 hours a week, 3 days at home and 2 days at her quarantined office on campus. She says that the current scuttlebutt from the Chancellor's office is that all 'essential' employees are going to have their hours cut from 5 days to 4 days a week starting in May. She said it is no big deal to her, she will still be able to pay her bills.

We stayed for an hour and had a wonderful visit from afar. We all agreed that this is one Easter that we will never forget! We returned home in the same 70 minutes. We didn't have to stop anywhere, we were always inside the car, not even for gas, since we drive an all electric car and had filled up with "fuel" from our rooftop solar panels the night before. Momi threw together some leftovers for supper - leftover lasagna and a fresh green salad.....and she gave me an Easter basket which she has done every year of our married life!

Ricky's Popi


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## krandall (Jun 11, 2009)

Ricky Ricardo said:


> According to published statistics, Mass. is testing at the rate of 1042 people per 100K while Cal. is testing at the rate of 295 people per 100K. We simply don't have enough test kits here. It is almost like each State gets the same number of test kit regardless of their population. But that doesn't surprise me given the incompetent and input response by the Federal government.
> 
> Ricky's Popi


We have a lot of biotech in the state, and I think a lot of our testing is coming from the private sector, not from the federal government. We are getting thwarted right and left by the Federal government because of TRumps dislike for Baker.


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## krandall (Jun 11, 2009)

Ricky Ricardo said:


> According to published statistics, Mass. is testing at the rate of 1042 people per 100K while Cal. is testing at the rate of 295 people per 100K. We simply don't have enough test kits here. It is almost like each State gets the same number of test kit regardless of their population. But that doesn't surprise me given the incompetent and input response by the Federal government.
> 
> Ricky's Popi


Also, that SOUNDS like a lot. But it STILL means that ONLY (very) sick people are getting tested.


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## krandall (Jun 11, 2009)

We had only our immediate family, that we are "quarantining" with anyway. But we still had an easter egg hunt for the little one! It IS a blessing that we have her with us!

We "Facetimed" the other grandparents so they could enjoy the egg hunt too.


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## Heather's (Jun 18, 2012)

Our local grocery store has implemented stricter rules. Everyone must wear a mask and gloves. Last Friday I was walking toward the door with my mask and gloves on and noticed a large security guard. After greeting me he said, "there's a line." Then I noticed a very long line in front of the store with six foot markers. When one person exited the security guard allowed another to enter. It actually was nice because there were very few people in the store. This store only allows you to take one box of Kleenex, one roll of paper towels and TP (Cottonelle😊). Everything else was well stocked. At least I know we can get always one roll of paper products per day. I think their idea of not selling packages is for the best because it prevent hoarding. DH went to a chain store early Easter morning and was lucky to finally get a large package of TP. 
Our county health website posted as of today there have been 6,773 patients tested, 699 positive, 6,043 negative, 31 pending with average days to result 2.04.


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## EvaE1izabeth (Nov 14, 2017)

In Utah they are able to do something like 4,000 tests per day, but they’re actually only doing about 1/4 of that per day because people aren’t seeking out tests. I’m pretty sure they only need to have one of the symptoms to get a test, though. What I read is that they are capable of testing the general population for asymptomatic carriers but that it’s more complicated than just giving everyone a test. There’s concern about things like timing, such as, if they start testing to screen for asymptomatic carriers, the window between infection and testing may lead to people test negative and then not social distance, only to develop the virus later. They are also expected to be able to do antibody testing really soon, within weeks. But again, being able to do the test doesn’t mean they are quite ready to actually use the test in context of reliable information about the virus yet. At least, that’s the conclusion I’m drawing based on reading so much vague and conflicting information. 

I’ve noticed a lot of articles that mention antibody testing will help get people back to work. I hope it will, but I find this really confusing. All of the worldwide researchers keep saying they don’t know about antibodies yet. I don’t know much, but DS had viruses reactivate due to his transplant, so isn’t it potentially more complex? Even as I’m writing, I’m wondering how it’s similar or different to people who got chicken pox twice, or chicken pox and shingles.


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## krandall (Jun 11, 2009)

Well, the problem is, when you only let people buy ONE roll of toilet paper a day, you are forcing them to come back multiple times when the experts are asking people to limit their trips to the grocery store. So that doesn’t sound optimal either...


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

EvaE1izabeth said:


> They are also expected to be able to do antibody testing really soon, within weeks. But again, being able to do the test doesn't mean they are quite ready to actually use the test in context of reliable information about the virus yet. At least, that's the conclusion I'm drawing based on reading so much vague and conflicting information.


EvaE you are asking fair and reasonable questions. Unfortunately, medical professionals often don't agree on the answers because we are treading in all new medical territory and the professionals are still trying to figure it all out. What gripes me is that Dr. Fauci has to retract his rather benign statements to assuage the so-called presidents fragile ego under threat of being fired if he doesn't do it.

Ricky's Popi


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## ShamaMama (Jul 27, 2015)

We probably should have started a separate thread for Easter reports, but oh well. Nice to hear your stories, Popi and Karen. My mom is currently in swing bed at the hospital where my parents live, so my dad can't visit her these days. She has a really good attitude though, so that's huge. My brother-in-law got my dad to connect with his family via Zoom for "lunch" on Easter, then my sisters, my DH, two nieces and I got my dad to connect with us via the Houseparty app (highly recommend for easy connecting with people but also simple games), so I was happy with my dad's Easter despite his being home alone. (This is my dad who I took to Shama's breeder's house to hold puppies for his 80th birthday in November 2018 when my mom had just had her open heart surgery and was still at the hospital in Minneapolis.) Then today, we had a Zoom meeting with 13 friends in France, and my dad (the Zoom expert since he'd attended his first Zoom meeting yesterday) and his older sister (who had never tried Zoom before but was able to connect from her assisted living facility through her iPad) were able to join us! One of our French friends is the woman I lived with in 1993-94, and everyone else was her children, grandchildren, and one great grandchild. When DH and I were married in northern Minnesota in 2000, this woman, her daughter, and her granddaughter (all three were in Zoom today) came to the wedding and spent a week with us at my aunt's lake home. This was a great couple of days for us. COVID-19 actually brought our French friends and my dad and my aunt closer than they'd been for years!


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## krandall (Jun 11, 2009)

ShamaMama said:


> We probably should have started a separate thread for Easter reports, but oh well. Nice to hear your stories, Popi and Karen. My mom is currently in swing bed at the hospital where my parents live, so my dad can't visit her these days. She has a really good attitude though, so that's huge. My brother-in-law got my dad to connect with his family via Zoom for "lunch" on Easter, then my sisters, my DH, two nieces and I got my dad to connect with us via the Houseparty app (highly recommend for easy connecting with people but also simple games), so I was happy with my dad's Easter despite his being home alone. (This is my dad who I took to Shama's breeder's house to hold puppies for his 80th birthday in November 2018 when my mom had just had her open heart surgery and was still at the hospital in Minneapolis.) Then today, we had a Zoom meeting with 13 friends in France, and my dad (the Zoom expert since he'd attended his first Zoom meeting yesterday) and his older sister (who had never tried Zoom before but was able to connect from her assisted living facility through her iPad) were able to join us! One of our French friends is the woman I lived with in 1993-94, and everyone else was her children, grandchildren, and one great grandchild. When DH and I were married in northern Minnesota in 2000, this woman, her daughter, and her granddaughter (all three were in Zoom today) came to the wedding and spent a week with us at my aunt's lake home. This was a great couple of days for us. COVID-19 actually brought our French friends and my dad and my aunt closer than they'd been for years!


That is fantastic!!! <3


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## adalah (Feb 6, 2019)

this thread is awesome


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

adalah said:


> this thread is awesome


I think this thread provides an opportunity to deal with the known rather than the unknown. It helps me put things into perspective. At times I feel pretty miserable but I realize it could be worse comparing to what good people are having to put up with in other areas. So yes, I'm grinding it out like most other people.

California Gov. Newsom, was just on the national news with a press conference. He said that the infection rate and death rate in California has been declining for the last several days. California "hots spot" ranking has been dropping dramatically when compared to other States as a result. California health professionals have said that it appears we have topped out and flattened the curve and now we can begin to taper that curve in a downward fashion, IF we continue to follow State mandates. He said now is NOT the time to "spike the ball" and open things up. He said that Californicans must continue to follow the California State mandates which are particularly strict. He said State health professionals will advise him when to "let up on the brakes." That decision will be based on science, not on politics. To that end, California has formed an alliance with Oregon and Washington to determine when to open their economies, rather than a political decision made by the so-called president. In summation, Newsom said that the strict California State mandates will stay in place for at least another month. The Governor has provided a clear strategy based on scientific health protocols and this gives me HOPE and optimism.

Ricky's Popi


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## krandall (Jun 11, 2009)

Ricky Ricardo said:


> To that end, California has formed an alliance with Oregon and Washington to determine when to open their economies, rather than a political decision made by the so-called president. In summation, Newsom said that the strict California State mandates will stay in place for at least another month. The Governor has provided a clear strategy based on scientific health protocols and this gives me HOPE and optimism.


Our northeastern coalition of governors is saying pretty much the same thing. NY's Governor Cuomo has taken the lead putting this coalition together (which, incidentally, is bipartisan) and gave a REALLY eloquent speech during his briefing today about how this is NOT a time for politics and that decisions must be based on science. (He also very deftly quoted Hamilton and made it very clear that the United States government had never wanted nor included a king  )


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

krandall said:


> Our northeastern coalition of governors is saying pretty much the same thing. NY's Governor Cuomo has taken the lead putting this coalition together (which, incidentally, is bipartisan)


Curious. The most recent list of the Northeast Alliance I have seen does NOT include Mass. and your republican governor. Do you have an update? A republican gov. would really need some cajones to buck the so-called president.

I hear this so-called "scientist", who is anti-vaxxer conspiracy theorist Dr. Sanji, is going to run for Senate in Mass. What do you give his chances of winning - slim or none?

Ricky's Popi


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## Molly120213 (Jan 22, 2014)

Ricky Ricardo said:


> Curious. The most recent list of the Northeast Alliance I have seen does NOT include Mass. and your republican governor. Do you have an update? A republican gov. would really need some cajones to buck the so-called president.
> 
> Ricky's Popi


The Northeast Alliance includes NY, NJ, CT, PA, DE, MA, and RI.


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## krandall (Jun 11, 2009)

Ricky Ricardo said:


> Curious. The most recent list of the Northeast Alliance I have seen does NOT include Mass. and your republican governor. Do you have an update? A republican gov. would really need some cajones to buck the so-called president.
> 
> I hear this so-called "scientist", who is anti-vaxxer conspiracy theorist Dr. Sanji, is going to run for Senate in Mass. What do you give his chances of winning - slim or none?
> 
> Ricky's Popi


Yes, both Baker and Cuomo said today that MA is included.

Baker has bucked Trump since day one. He didn't even vote for him. And made that publicly known. 

MA has become a predominantly "blue" state. But we are a "thinking" blue state. We don't throw out a good candidate because they are a Republican. I have thought of myself as an independent all my life. The Republican party has forced me into voting Democrat most of the time. I voted for this governor.  (and I was ALL for Elizabeth at the same time  )

And I have a hard time believing that MA would vote in an anti-vaxxer. Remember. This state is a hotbed of educated biotech people.


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## Edie Swenson (Mar 16, 2020)

New Hampshire? Thanks!


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

Edie Swenson said:


> New Hampshire? Thanks!


New Hampshire ranks in the middle of the pack with regards to infection rate per 100K population. It has been holding steady in the ranking for the last 10 days or so. It has a better than average testing rate per 100K population, in the upper middle ranking. NH is testing almost double the rate of people compared to California.

Ricky's Popi


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

krandall said:


> MA has become a predominantly "blue" state. But we are a "thinking" blue state. We don't throw out a good candidate because they are a Republican. I have thought of myself as an independent all my life.


This got me thinking. What are the "bluest" States (tend to vote Democratic) and what are the "reddest" States (tend to vote Republican)? I researched the available data (what else do I have to do while sequestered in my house?). I was interested in the percentage of voter margin of one party over the other party in the last ten years and in particular what is to be expected in the 2020 national election. This is not a political statement on my part, it is merely research to determine which States tend to be "Democratic" and which States tend to be "Republican." I always assumed the the southern States tended to be the most "Republican", but the results are surprising. In summary, there are 30 States that tend to vote Republican, but they tend to be the less populated States and that is balanced out by the the fewer, more populous States that tend to vote Democratic in the national election.

DISCLAIMER: this analysis is based on generalities rather than specifics. The results may contain inconsistencies and are subject to reasonable dispute. Discretion is always advised (in other words, I don't know what I'm talking about).

Bluest States (Democratic)
Hawaii = +36%
Mass. = +29%
R.I. = +26%
Cal. = +24%
Vermont = +24%

Reddest States (Republican)
Wyoming = +47%
Idaho = +35%
Oklahoma = +34%
N.D. = +33%
Utah = +31%
S.D. = +31%

So, it is the Midwest prairie States that tend to be the most conservative Republican rather than the South.

In conclusion, I frequently hear about 'swing States." I have tried to determine which States could really swing an election in the Electoral College. Which States are most eveningly divided and could go either way for a particular party?

Swing States
Virginia = even
Nevada = +1 (R)
Michigan = +1 (D)
PA = +1 (R)
CO = +1 (D)
WI = +1 (R)

Ricky's Popi


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## LUVmyHava (Apr 16, 2019)

Ricky Ricardo said:


> This got me thinking. What are the "bluest" States (tend to vote Democratic) and what are the "reddest" States (tend to vote Republican)?
> 
> Reddest States (Republican)
> Wyoming = +47%
> ...


That's a strange conclusion about the South when you don't provide any data about the South. l live in the Mississippi. We have Rep Governor, both US Senators are Rep and only one Dem House Representative who has held that seat for decades because his district is predominantly African-American and he is African-American. African-Americans voted for Obama but refused to vote for Hillary. So depends on election. I doubt MS will vote for Biden. Mississippi has not voted Democratic since 1976. Since that time, Republicans have dominated the state's political elections, and so Trump was widely expected to win the state. Trump won the election in Mississippi with 57.9% of the vote, while Hillary Clinton received 40.1% of the vote.

Being Republican not necessarily "conservative" and being Democrat not necessarily "liberal".

VA is no longer a swing state. It has Blue trifecta with Dem Gov, Senate and House.

Americans used to be block voters and never voted for a candidate in other party. But that has changed. Voters now tend to vote for who they like regardless of party affiliation. I haven't voted a block ticket for decades.


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

LUVmyHava said:


> That's a strange conclusion about the South when you don't provide any data about the South. l live in the Mississippi. We have Rep Governor, both US Senators are Rep and only one Dem House Representative who has held that seat for decades because his district is predominantly African-American and he is African-American. African-Americans voted for Obama but refused to vote for Hillary. So depends on election. I doubt MS will vote for Biden.
> 
> Being Republican not necessarily "conservative" and being Democrat not necessarily "liberal".
> 
> ...





Ricky Ricardo said:


> DISCLAIMER: this analysis is based on generalities rather than specifics. The results may contain inconsistencies and are subject to reasonable dispute. Discretion is always advised (in other words, I don't know what I'm talking about).


See DISCLAIMER

Ricky's Popi


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## LUVmyHava (Apr 16, 2019)

All the states you list as "reddest" ARE NOT MIDWEST or Great Plains. Those are all mountain west except Oklahoma.


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

LUVmyHava said:


> All the states you list as "reddest" ARE NOT MIDWEST or Great Plains. Those are all mountain west except Oklahoma.


See DISCLAIMER

Ricky's Popi


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## LUVmyHava (Apr 16, 2019)

I am so tired of Gov Cuomo whining. He expects federal government to do everything for New York after NY received vast majority of federal aid during crisis. NYC got hit hard partly because Cuomo forbid Mayor DeBlasio from shutting down the city on March 17. Does he think we all forgot about his rant that the Mayor had no authority to shut down NYC and no city in NY would shut down without his permission.

" I have no interest whatsoever and no plan whatsoever to quarantine any city," Cuomo insisted."

"There's not going to be any quarantine," he said.

"There's not going to be any, 'You must stay in your house,' rule," he said, calling that "counterproductive."

https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/cuomo-de-blasio-clash-over-possible-shelter-in-place-system-for-nyc/

He finally quarantined NY on March 20 giving Covid-19 three extra days to infect NY.


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## mudpuppymama (Mar 24, 2012)

I am surprised Missouri is not listed as a republican state. We are a bunch of gun carrying conservatives.


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

mudpuppymama said:


> I am surprised Missouri is not listed as a republican state. We are a bunch of gun carrying conservatives.


Oh, Missouri (+19% R) and Mississippi (+15% R) are listed as essentially "red" or Republican States but they did not make into the top five that I did publish. I didn't bother to publish all the States because that would be a bit tedious and I'm basically lazy! 

Ricky's Popi


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## mudpuppymama (Mar 24, 2012)

Ricky Ricardo said:


> Oh, Missouri (+19 R) and Mississippi (+15 R) are listed as essentially "red" or Republican States but they did not make into the top five that I did publish. I didn't bother to publish all the States because that would be a bit tedious and I'm basically lazy!
> 
> Ricky's Popi


No problem. You definitely don't want a fun forum to become work!!! We have enough of that.


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## Mikki (May 6, 2018)

I don't know how the number of reported viruses mean anything. Testing is inconsistent across all states, because we do not have good, consistent or enough Testing. This is the BIGGEST problem. Lack of Data.


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

Mikki said:


> I don't know how the number of reported viruses mean anything. Testing is inconsistent across all states, because we do not have good, consistent or enough Testing. This is the BIGGEST problem. Lack of Data.


I agree Mikki, testing is the key issue to re-opening the economy. On the other hand, the number of reported cases will go up if there is widespread testing. Now for some good news, at least in my area, it was announced yesterday that testing is now available in my county for those who don't display symptoms. However, you must make an advance appointment and the waiting list is already 30 days. You win some, you lose some.

Ricky's Popi


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## EvaE1izabeth (Nov 14, 2017)

LUVmyHava said:


> I am so tired of Gov Cuomo whining. He expects federal government to do everything for New York after NY received vast majority of federal aid during crisis. NYC got hit hard partly because Cuomo forbid Mayor DeBlasio from shutting down the city on March 17. Does he think we all forgot about his rant that the Mayor had no authority to shut down NYC and no city in NY would shut down without his permission.
> 
> " I have no interest whatsoever and no plan whatsoever to quarantine any city," Cuomo insisted."
> 
> ...


I was actually just wondering the other day if I imagined that. I was wondering if I was confusing the government in NYC with the state government.


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## EvaE1izabeth (Nov 14, 2017)

I thought it was interesting back when Karen posted about the context of her own state’s “blue” affiliation. In Utah the state is incredibly “red,” no doubt, but SLC is completely Democrat. There is a defensive push-pull dynamic because of this at times. 

I think there are underlying regional dynamics in each state that contribute to their political leanings that make comparing one “red” or “blue” state to another night and day in many cases. 

I also think the polarized political parties don’t reflect most American people at all. The very common belief here is to register and vote with the Republican Party as a way of having a voice, so they see Trump as the lesser of two evils, the Democratic Party being the worse evil. I’m so naive to be a grown adult and just realizing this during the last election, but I remember being really surprised at the people I knew who voted for Trump because I thought regardless of party, everyone would vote for the person they thought was the best candidate, and I knew so many people who voted for him couldn’t stand him. 

My grandpa died before I was born, but he was a politician his whole adult life, and before I was born my dad was also actively involved in local politics (both not in Utah). My parents always said, my grandpa wouldn’t recognize his own party. My dad became disillusioned with politics and registered as independent when I was a kid. He was always good at listening to all of the different perspectives and thinking about them, and he had a hard time with the growing polarization and “no compromise” being considered at attribute. But, my parents never discussed politics unless we specifically asked what they thought. DD is so politically opinionated, I often have to stop her and make sure she’s thinking her ideas through, even when I agree with her. For a while she was getting these terribly manipulative memes in her Instagram feed, the kind that try to boil down enormously complicated issues into a simple inflammatory statement and then judges whether you agree or disagree without anything in between. Politics has changed so much in my life, I wonder how how it will fit into the big picture when they look back at this time 100 years from now.


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

EvaE1izabeth said:


> I thought it was interesting back when Karen posted about the context of her own state's "blue" affiliation. In Utah the state is incredibly "red," no doubt, but SLC is completely Democrat. There is a defensive push-pull dynamic because of this at times.
> 
> I think there are underlying regional dynamics in each state that contribute to their political leanings that make comparing one "red" or "blue" state to another night and day in many cases.


Correct. Urban areas tend to be "blue" and rural areas tend to be "red". Areas with higher percentage of people with higher education degrees tend to be "blue" while the rest tend to be "red." Those States with a higher percentage of urbanized areas tend to be "blue" while those States with a higher percentage of rural areas tend to be "red." Interestingly, there is more area that is classified as in rural than urbanized in the US. So, if you look at a map of the US, there is more land mass area shown in red. But there is a greater population base in the urbanized areas, so that is why there is a slight plurality registered as Democratic rather than Republican in the US.



> I also think the polarized political parties don't reflect most American people at all.


I agree. If I had my way, I would take politics out of our electoral system. People would run on a non-partisan basis. They would tke positions on some of the "hot button" issues of the day, e.g. climate change, choice, size of government, immigration, States rights, etc. rather a political party coming up with a platform. Most of us are a blend of both progressive and conservative opinions and preferences. I "like" my Congressional Representative, but I wish he wasn't so wishy-washy on some issues.



> but I remember being really surprised at the people I knew who voted for Trump because I thought regardless of party, everyone would vote for the person they thought was the best candidate, and I knew so many people who voted for him couldn't stand him.


Utah will probably vote again for the so-called president after he has been so disrespectful to Sen. Romney, both a Republican and a Mormon. Talk about voting against their own best interests!



> Politics has changed so much in my life, I wonder how how it will fit into the big picture when they look back at this time 100 years from now.


If we don't do something about climate change, politics will be the least of our progeny's worry 100 years from now.

Peace, Love, and Havanese
Ricky's Popi


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

*By The Numbers*

The County I live in is composed of a very diverse ethnic population of 2.4M. If it were a State, it would be the 37th largest in the U.S. We have a larger than average elderly population due to the relatively low cost of living compared to the urban areas of California, the mild, four season climate, and central location (literally you can go surfing in the Pacific Ocean and 2 hours later be knee deep in snow in an Alpine forest).

Our County Health Dept. works in concert with our local campus of the Univ. of California to track and generate statistics on the Covid-19 virus. Our County has implemented some very strict mandates to protect the citizens from the virus AND most everyone is complying and we don't have any "open the economy" protests. Here are the latest statistics reported at 1PM, 04/19/2020

- total tested = 32779
- confirmed cases = 2638
- currently hospitalized = 223
- currently in ICU = 71
- deaths = 75
- recovered = 642

We are experiencing an approx. 9% infection rate which is NOT considered a "hot spot"

We are experiencing an approx. 10% hospitalization rate of those confirmed cases, which means that the vast majority of people have cases that are mild enough that they can convalesce at home.

We are experiencing an approx. 30% ICU rate which means that 30% of those who are hospitalized have cases that are serious enough they need a respirator.

So far, we are experiencing an approx. 25% recovery rate, but I have confidence that percentage will increase since it is reported that it takes about 2 weeks for recovery.

We are experiencing an approx. 3% death rate which could be better but is in the lower percentile in the U.S.

I am optimistic that our County leaders, both health professionals and politicians, are doing a pretty good job of containing this thing and will lead to a faster, local economic recovery and getting our lives back to a semblance of self control. In fact our County feels confident enough that they are opening up testing to EVERYONE, no proof of symptoms are required!!!!! :whoo:

BUT I HAVE SAVED THE MOST INTERESTING STATISTIC FOR LAST!

The County has broken down the infection rate by age group!

- 40 to 64 = 45%
- 18 to 39 = 35%
- 65 to 79 = 10%
- 80+ = 5%
- 0 to 4, 5 to 18 = 5%

I would never believe this unless I had confidence in our County's reporting procedure. Old people rock! :cheer2:

Ricky's Popi


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## krandall (Jun 11, 2009)

Ricky Ricardo said:


> The County I live in is composed of a very diverse ethnic population of 2.4M. If it were a State, it would be the 37th largest in the U.S. We have a larger than average elderly population due to the relatively low cost of living compared to the urban areas of California, the mild, four season climate, and central location (literally you can go surfing in the Pacific Ocean and 2 hours later be knee deep in snow in an Alpine forest).
> 
> Our County Health Dept. works in concert with our local campus of the Univ. of California to track and generate statistics on the Covid-19 virus. Our County has implemented some very strict mandates to protect the citizens from the virus AND most everyone is complying and we don't have any "open the economy" protests. Here are the latest statistics reported at 1PM, 04/19/2020
> 
> ...


Interesting statistics. MA is reporting a lot of statistics for us now, but I don't think they are doing it that finely, especially by age. I SUSPECT what we are seeing in the difference in your 18-39 and 40-64 statistics may be, not that that age range is actually getting sick more often, but that they are getting sick ENOUGH to seek testing more often. Yay for the older folks, who are distancing appropriately and keeping themselves safe! Even so, 10% is a lot with such a nasty disease!


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

krandall said:


> Even so, 10% is a lot with such a nasty disease!


Agreed, but looking at the bright side, if we take 10% of the 9% total infection rate, that means approx, .9% of those between 65 and 79 will be infected, that's less than 1 in a hundred. Those odds are not good enough to keep me from following the local mandates, but it sure makes it easier sleeping at night! And Ricky Ricardo is happy about that too!

Regarding the 5% in the 80+ category, a lot of that was in two local nursing homes. In one home, they found 26 cases of C-19! Those homes were immediately and completely evacuated and shut down (it made national news). The infected residents were placed in isolation in local hospitals (we still have plenty of beds and respirators according to local health officials). The uninfected residents were placed in disparate "safe houses."

Ricky's Popi


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## krandall (Jun 11, 2009)

Ricky Ricardo said:


> Agreed, but looking at the bright side, if we take 10% of the 9% total infection rate, that means approx, .9% of those between 65 and 79 will be infected, that's less than 1 in a hundred. Those odds are not good enough to keep me from following the local mandates, but it sure makes it easier sleeping at night! And Ricky Ricardo is happy about that too!


True! I just ordered more cloth masks from a Havi person who is making them. I only have one, and, honestly, that has been PLENTY for the number of times I've been out so far, but I suspect that over the coming year, eventually, there will be more times when they will be needed by both Dave and me. Especially if Robbie and Minerva find another house, and are no longer shopping for us!



Ricky Ricardo said:


> Regarding the 5% in the 80+ category, a lot of that was in two local nursing homes. In one home, they found 26 cases of C-19! Those homes were immediately and completely evacuated and shut down (it made national news). The infected residents were placed in isolation in local hospitals (we still have plenty of beds and respirators according to local health officials). The uninfected residents were placed in disparate "safe houses."
> 
> Ricky's Popi


Ye! Same thing happened here! Also, I was hearing DREADFUL numbers for people coming off ventilators too, and wondering whether it was even worth going on one if it came to that. Then I heard a local doctor talking about the fact that the VERY elderly who were EXTREMELY sick when they went on were driving these percentages up. (or down, depending on how you look at it) That people who were otherwise relatively healthy really had a very good chance of coming back off the ventilator and doing well, long-term.

Though the other interesting thing is that they are ALSO finding that many patients that they previously would have put on vents, they are finding are doing at least as well if they put them face-down, and put them either just on O2 via cannula or on a CPAP. So they are putting fewer people on vents to start with.


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

krandall said:


> they are finding are doing at least as well if they put them face-down, and put them either just on O2 via cannula or on a CPAP. So they are putting fewer people on vents to start with.


I have posted elsewhere that I use a CPAP for Sleep Apnea. A CPAP machine will work as a low tech 
ventilator/respirator but the major problem with a CPAP is that it is an "open" system whereas a respirator is a "closed" system. CPAPs exhaust the air into the surrounding atmosphere unlike a respirator recirculates the air within the system. Therefore someone on a CPAP with C-19 virus infection can infect those in the same room if they are not wearing an N-95 mask. It is all very complicated with no easy solutions.

Ricky's Popi


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## Heather's (Jun 18, 2012)

Just listened to Gov. Newsom's news update. Appears the cases are increasing in California, but flattening. I'm very pleased how he has taken charge during this pandemic. 
Our county population is 727,209. Here are the County Health Dept. statistics from 04/19/2020:

Total tested=8,594 
Confirmed=920
Hospitalized=61
ICU=16
Deaths=28 
Infection rate= 10.4%

Infection rate by age:
09 to 19= 23
20 to 29= 124
30 to 39= 153
40 to 49= 162
50 to 59= 157
60 to 69= 136
70 to 79= 69
80 to 89= 57
90+ = 39

Our county is in the San Francisco Bay Area


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## krandall (Jun 11, 2009)

Ricky Ricardo said:


> I have posted elsewhere that I use a CPAP for Sleep Apnea. A CPAP machine will work as a low tech
> ventilator/respirator but the major problem with a CPAP is that it is an "open" system whereas a respirator is a "closed" system. CPAPs exhaust the air into the surrounding atmosphere unlike a respirator recirculates the air within the system. Therefore someone on a CPAP with C-19 virus infection can infect those in the same room if they are not wearing an N-95 mask. It is all very complicated with no easy solutions.
> 
> Ricky's Popi


Sure but all the other Covid patients who are not on respirators (the majority of them) are also on "open systems". They don't put people on respirators to protect the other people in the room... they do it in a last-ditch effort to save someone's life. So if there is a way to save them that does not require intubation (which has its own set of very serious risks) better to try these. At least here in the northeast, these methods are being used by more and more hospitals. And it is not because of a shortage of respirators... it is because they are finding that many patients are doing better this way.


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## EvaE1izabeth (Nov 14, 2017)

Ricky Ricardo said:


> On the other hand, the number of reported cases will go up if there is widespread testing.


I seem to remember reading that reported cases alone are not the only determining factor to growth. There are controls in place, but I don't know what they are. I think the percentage of diagnosed cases that are hospitalized is potentially more significant than just the number of cases, for instance.


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## EvaE1izabeth (Nov 14, 2017)

Am I confused about how cpap works? I assumed it’s the same risk as breathing room air, just as oxygen is. With a cpap, does the person exhale into the mask?


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## krandall (Jun 11, 2009)

EvaE1izabeth said:


> Am I confused about how cpap works? I assumed it's the same risk as breathing room air, just as oxygen is. With a cpap, does the person exhale into the mask?


Yes, they do. But they do if they are being given O2 by any other means other than a respirator also.


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

EvaE1izabeth said:


> I seem to remember reading that reported cases alone are not the only determining factor to growth. There are controls in place, but I don't know what they are. I think the percentage of diagnosed cases that are hospitalized is potentially more significant than just the number of cases, for instance.


You are correct EvaE. The result of expanded testing means that the number of identifiable infections could potentially (but not necessarily) go up. That doesn't mean that they all need to be hospitalized. it means that those infected would require mandatory 'stay at home' until released by a doctor. This would result in a delay to widespread "opening up the economy" in many, if not all, areas. This would be contrary to the so-called presidents political policy rather than a national health safety policy.



EvaE1izabeth said:


> Am I confused about how cpap works? I assumed it's the same risk as breathing room air, just as oxygen is. With a cpap, does the person exhale into the mask?


Yes, using a CPAP is the same as breathing unfiltered air in as well as out. The only difference is that the air one breathes in is under a slight pressure produced in the internals of the machine. The mask for a CPAP machine covers the nose and mouth with a tight seal, much like the an N-95 mask, but there is a hose that goes into the front of the mask, connected to the machine to supply the pressurized air. Yes, I wrestle with that hose in bed with me at night but CPAP users get used to it. The reason for a tight seal is to keep the pressurized air focused on the nose and mouth. The air that is exhaled is released through a one-way valve on the front of the mask. Google "picture CPAP mask" and I think you will see what I am trying to describe.

Ricky's Popi


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## EvaE1izabeth (Nov 14, 2017)

My dad uses a cpap, and I’m convinced DH needs one, lol. DS was on home oxygen until he was 4 or 5, with a nasal cannula. I seem to remember a reservoir for water on my dad’s cpap. When you mentioned the closed system, it made me curious if the cpap in some way dispels exhaled air in a way that would warrant more caution than breathing room air or a nasal cannula, but I was thinking in terms of home, not in the hospital. In the hospital, the type of oxygen support shouldn’t be related in any way to contraction of the disease, because healthcare workers should have enough protective gear that it isn’t even a factor. DS has rarely been intubated without having to be weaned off oxygen with a nasal cannula, and oxygen therapy can be complicated and fluctuate. It just me wonder if people at home who might be mildly sick and need to use things like nebulizers, cpap, etc. should take precautions when they do so. I was definitely overthinking it, though, because I don’t see how someone would be exhaling through the machine!


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

EvaE1izabeth said:


> I seem to remember a reservoir for water on my dad's cpap.


Yes, there is an optional water reservoir for distilled water. The water has nothing to do with air filtration. it is there to hydrate (humidify) the air to prevent drying out nasal passages. Some use it. some don't. I choose to use it.


> When you mentioned the closed system, it made me curious if the cpap in some way dispels exhaled air in a way that would warrant more caution than breathing room air or a nasal cannula, but I was thinking in terms of home, not in the hospital.


No, the air that is exhaled from a CPAP is no different than the ambient air at home or in a hospital, although it might be slightly more humid.



> I was definitely overthinking it, though, because I don't see how someone would be exhaling through the machine!


Air is exhaled through the front of the mask (at the bridge of the nose area), not through the machine.

Regarding your husband might need one, that is possible, but you can't just go out and purchase one. They are a prescription item only as far as I know. They cost around $300/400 but my insurance paid for 80% of mine. You need to purchase new masks 2/4 times a year. My insurance cost is around $30 per mask.

Ricky's Popi


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## EvaE1izabeth (Nov 14, 2017)

Ricky Ricardo said:


> Regarding your husband might need one, that is possible, but you can't just go out and purchase one. They are a prescription item only as far as I know. They cost around $300/400 but my insurance paid for 80% of mine. You need to purchase new masks 2/4 times a year. My insurance cost is around $30 per mask.
> 
> Ricky's Popi


Unless something has changed, that also requires things like doctors appointments and sleep studies. If you knew the long list of random ailments my husband just ignores (and keep in mind he's pretty young so I'm pretty sure these things aren't normal) you would laugh so hard at that idea. Just a couple of weeks ago he asked if he could borrow my OttLite to do some "minor surgery."

It's not the money, or even access. We plan for and meet our out of pocket every year, and his work even contracts with in-house medical so a couple days a month he could just go down a floor for an appointment. it's not even some kind of ego-man thing. It's just not even on his radar. Sigh.


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

EvaE1izabeth said:


> It's just not even on his radar. Sigh.


If your stubborn husband won't listen to you, maybe the "Sundance Kid" can talk some sense into him. :wink2:

Ricky's Popi


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## Mikki (May 6, 2018)

EvaE1izabeth said:


> Am I confused about how cpap works? I assumed it's the same risk as breathing room air, just as oxygen is. With a cpap, does the person exhale into the mask?


CPAP machines are used by people who have Sleep Apnea. Google what Sleep Apnea is if you don't know. These machines can be purchased without of doctors prescription but people don't usually buy them unless a doctor orders one. Insurance requires a doctors order to pay for them.

A CPAP machine can somehow be converted to help COVID patients who are struggling to breath. Italy did this because there were are not enough ventilators. They are not ventilators.

Apparently, CPAP machines helped spread COVID in some nursing homes where they were used to help people who were having problems breathing. The nursing home did not know the patients had the COVID virus and no one knew CPAP machines would spread the virus. According to the NPR story below.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...ilator-alternatives-but-could-spread-covid-19


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

Mikki said:


> CPAP machines are used by people who have Sleep Apnea. Google what Sleep Apnea is if you don't know. These machines can be purchased without of doctors prescription but people don't usually buy them unless a doctor orders one. Insurance requires a doctors order to pay for them.
> 
> A CPAP machine can somehow be converted to help COVID patients who are struggling to breath. Italy did this because there were are not enough ventilators. They are not ventilators.
> 
> Apparently, CPAP machines helped spread COVID in some nursing homes where they were used to help people who were having problems breathing. The nursing home did not know the patients had the COVID virus and no one knew CPAP machines would spread the virus. According to the NPR story below.


Good post, I agree with everything you said.

Ricky's Popi


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## EvaE1izabeth (Nov 14, 2017)

Mikki said:


> CPAP machines are used by people who have Sleep Apnea. Google what Sleep Apnea is if you don't know. These machines can be purchased without of doctors prescription but people don't usually buy them unless a doctor orders one. Insurance requires a doctors order to pay for them.
> 
> A CPAP machine can somehow be converted to help COVID patients who are struggling to breath. Italy did this because there were are not enough ventilators. They are not ventilators.
> 
> ...


Thanks, that makes a lot of sense. We are a family full of sleep apnea on both sides. DH's resolved a lot after a tonsillectomy in his twenties but it's progressively returned. DD also had sleep apnea and when her tonsils were removed it completely resolved. My dad has sleep apnea, completely unrelated to tonsils, and has been using a cpap for more than 20 years. I remember when he went for a sleep study for the first time, it was actually part of a medical study, and no one had heard of it. They did a custom cast to make the face mask.

It sounds like the recommendation is to use the cpap in a separate room if the person is infected with covid-19.

Thanks for sharing that. I have been on a "news diet," only checking am and pm, and didn't come across that info. I might have to consider other ways of balancing news consumption


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## 31818 (Oct 29, 2014)

EvaE1izabeth said:


> It sounds like the recommendation is to use the cpap in a separate room if the person is infected with covid-19.


EvaE, the answer to that comment is complicated. Only a health care professional should make that determination and even then, some of them won't agree. It depends. Are you talking about a CPAP in a home or hospital environment?

I AM NOT A HEALTH CARE PROFESSIONAL. But in general, I think the best advice is that someone with C-19 symptoms should always be isolated in a home environment, whether they have a CPAP machine or not. C-19 is VERY contagious! Look at the excellent reporting by Chris Cuomo on CNN. He has/had C-19 and self isolated in his own home, in a separate room, away from his family. The whole family appeared to be very conscientious about respecting the quarantine. However, his wife is now infected with C-19.

I would not go out and purchase a CPAP machine, thinking that it would provide some protection. Only a doctor can make that determination. The only reason to purchase a CPAP machine is with a Sleep Apnea diagnosis by an M.D. sleep disorder specialist.

Ricky's Popi


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## EvaE1izabeth (Nov 14, 2017)

Ricky Ricardo said:


> EvaE, the answer to that comment is complicated. Only a health care professional should make that determination and even then, some of them won't agree. It depends. Are you talking about a CPAP in a home or hospital environment?
> 
> I AM NOT A HEALTH CARE PROFESSIONAL. But in general, I think the best advice is that someone with C-19 symptoms should always be isolated in a home environment, whether they have a CPAP machine or not. C-19 is VERY contagious! Look at the excellent reporting by Chris Cuomo on CNN. He has/had C-19 and self isolated in his own home, in a separate room, away from his family. The whole family appeared to be very conscientious about respecting the quarantine. However, his wife is now infected with C-19.
> 
> ...


I'm specifically referring to home use. I haven't even considered what home would look like with a family member diagnosed with covid. Too much to think about, just focused on prevention!

Using the cpap in a separate room is the recommendation from the official American academy of Sleep science or medicine or whatever it's called, and they didn't offer qualifiers. Basically keep it clean and use it in a separate room from other people if infected. But if the person is already isolated in a separate room, that sure makes it easier!

No intention of purchasing a machine. But I'm glad it was brought up because I hadn't heard about it, and based on my FaceTime conversation with my dad the other day, he hasn't, either. It would probably be good for him (and me) to follow any updates on cpap use related to covid-19 at this time, since he's a cpap user.


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## EvaE1izabeth (Nov 14, 2017)

https://aasm.org/coronavirus-covid-19-faqs-cpap-sleep-apnea-patients/

Actually, it does state that the patient should be isolated first, it just wasn't in the list I was reading, but it's in the article and in the header of the list. Continued use of the cpap while infected is okay as long as the person is in a separate room, it's clean, etc.


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